Northbound

UPDATE:  2007 predictions are here.

Analysis of these picks is elsewhere on this site.

These are my predictions (dated August 1, 2006) for every single NFL game through Super Bowl XLI. These projections were made through a random number generator in Microsoft Excel, and are based on final score calculations through the last four NFL seasons. I make no promises about the accuracy of any prediction (i.e., Giants fans shouldn’t buy Super Bowl tickets just yet).

These predictions are, inherently, ridiculous. I do not actually think, for example, that the Steelers will miss the playoffs at 7-9, or that the 49ers will make the playoffs at 9-7. I’m just doing this to point out the absurdity of anyone picking the Super Bowl champion in August.

WEEK 1

Pittsburgh 38, Miami 16
Carolina 33, Atlanta 3
Tampa Bay 28, Baltimore 7
Buffalo 30, New England 29
Kansas City 27, Cincinnati 24
Denver 25, St. Louis 17
Cleveland 38, New Orleans 21
Tennessee 34, N.Y. Jets 20
Houston 27, Philadelphia 13
Detroit 21, Seattle 13
Chicago 21, Green Bay 9
Dallas 21, Jacksonville 20
San Francisco 30, Arizona 27
N.Y. Giants 24, Indianapolis 13
Washington 30, Minnesota 21
San Diego 19, Oakland 10

WEEK 2

Miami 38, Buffalo 19
Minnesota 35, Carolina 17
Cincinnati 29, Cleveland 17
Chicago 39, Detroit 35
Indianapolis 24, Houston 16
Green Bay 20, New Orleans 10
Philadelphia 40, N.Y. Giants 7
Baltimore 27, Oakland 7
Tampa Bay 33, Atlanta 21
Arizona 28, Seattle 19
San Francisco 21, St. Louis 14
Denver 17, Kansas City 12
N.Y. Jets 17, New England 13
San Diego 16, Tennessee 10
Dallas 19, Washington 10
Jacksonville 31, Pittsburgh 17

WEEK 3

Tampa Bay 34, Carolina 31
Chicago 10, Minnesota 9
Pittsburgh 28, Cincinnati 27
Green Bay 38, Detroit 0
Jacksonville 23, Indianapolis 20
Buffalo 26, N.Y. Jets 9
Tennessee 20, Miami 13
Houston 31, Washington 22
Cleveland 34, Baltimore 23
N.Y. Giants 34, Seattle 31
Philadelphia 23, San Francisco 3
Arizona 24, St. Louis 23
New England 27, Denver 3
New Orleans 17, Atlanta 13

WEEK 4

Arizona 17, Atlanta 3
Dallas 20, Tennessee 10
N.Y. Jets 31, Indianapolis 30
Miami 23, Houston 20
Buffalo 17, Minnesota 10
New Orleans 15, Carolina 3
San Diego 23, Baltimore 10
Kansas City 20, San Francisco 18
St. Louis 17, Detroit 7
Oakland 17, Cleveland 14
Jacksonville 33, Washington 9
New England 31, Cincinnati 10
Seattle 13, Chicago 10
Green Bay 28, Philadelphia 21

WEEK 5

Buffalo 33, Chicago 20
Cleveland 17, Carolina 15
Minnesota 19, Detroit 13
New England 17, Miami 10
Green Bay 38, St. Louis 20
Tampa Bay 20, New Orleans 17
Indianapolis 26, Tennessee 3
N.Y. Giants 31, Washington 27
Kansas City 23, Arizona 10
Jacksonville 13, N.Y. Jets 10
San Francisco 25, Oakland 3
Philadelphia 30, Dallas 20
San Diego 40, Pittsburgh 31
Baltimore 24, Denver 20

WEEK 6

Buffalo 27, Detroit 14
Baltimore 19, Carolina 17
Tampa Bay 34, Cincinnati 13
Dallas 38, Houston 23
N.Y. Giants 35, Atlanta 17
Philadelphia 31, New Orleans 24
Seattle 27, St. Louis 7
Tennessee 34, Washington 23
Pittsburgh 14, Kansas City 12
Miami 33, N.Y. Jets 8
San Francisco 30, San Diego 7
Oakland 20, Denver 13
Arizona 24, Chicago 17

WEEK 7

Cincinnati 23, Carolina 9
N.Y. Jets 24, Detroit 17
Green Bay 27, Miami 14
Houston 41, Jacksonville 24
New England 10, Buffalo 3
Philadelphia 24, Tampa Bay 20
Atlanta 34, Pittsburgh 31
Kansas City 24, San Diego 14
Cleveland 24, Denver 17
Oakland 21, Arizona 9
Minnesota 21, Seattle 17
Indianapolis 9, Washington 8
N.Y. Giants 37, Dallas 31

WEEK 8

Green Bay 29, Arizona 10
Atlanta 26, Cincinnati 3
New Orleans 20, Baltimore 13
Tennessee 17, Houston 3
Jacksonville 27, Philadelphia 3
Kansas City 27, Seattle 14
San Francisco 36, Chicago 13
N.Y. Giants 20, Tampa Bay 16
San Diego 34, St. Louis 20
Denver 30, Indianapolis 27
Cleveland 20, N.Y. Jets 7
Oakland 28, Pittsburgh 21
Carolina 33, Dallas 21
New England 37, Minnesota 28

WEEK 9

Detroit 17, Atlanta 7
Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 7
Dallas 42, Washington 13
Green Bay 24, Buffalo 9
Houston 20, N.Y. Giants 3
Kansas City 30, St. Louis 20
Chicago 34, Miami 20
Tampa Bay 31, New Orleans 20
Tennessee 22, Jacksonville 16
San Francisco 20, Minnesota 12
San Diego 25, Cleveland 14
Denver 30, Pittsburgh 23
New England 29, Indianapolis 24
Seattle 25, Oakland 17

WEEK 10

Baltimore 35, Tennessee 16
Indianapolis 13, Buffalo 3
N.Y. Giants 17, Chicago 10
Atlanta 23, Cleveland 21
Green Bay 15, Minnesota 13
Houston 23, Jacksonville 21
Miami 24, Kansas City 16
New Orleans 31, Pittsburgh 0
N.Y. Jets 33, New England 3
San Diego 27, Cincinnati 17
San Francisco 35, Detroit 31
Washington 23, Philadelphia 3
Oakland 21, Denver 16
Dallas 34, Arizona 20
Seattle 27, St. Louis 23
Carolina 26, Tampa Bay 19

WEEK 11

Baltimore 37, Atlanta 31
Houston 17, Buffalo 15
N.Y. Jets 24, Chicago 7
Cincinnati 32, New Orleans 16
Dallas 10, Indianapolis 6
Miami 32, Minnesota 20
Green Bay 27, New England 16
Oakland 24, Kansas City 21
Pittsburgh 28, Cleveland 25
Carolina 23, St. Louis 20
Philadelphia 14, Tennessee 10
Washington 30, Tampa Bay 20
Detroit 20, Arizona 7
San Francisco 37, Seattle 21
Denver 20, San Diego 19
N.Y. Giants 28, Jacksonville 23

WEEK 12

Miami 20, Detroit 6
Dallas 27, Tampa Bay 24
Kansas City 28, Denver 21
Arizona 10, Minnesota 3
Washington 24, Carolina 19
Chicago 27, New England 17
Cleveland 20, Cincinnati 13
Houston 28, N.Y. Jets 26
Jacksonville 21, Buffalo 13
New Orleans 34, Atlanta 31
N.Y. Giants 14, Tennessee 13
Indianapolis 37, Philadelphia 24
Pittsburgh 24, Baltimore 17
St. Louis 34, San Francisco 17
Oakland 37, San Diego 7
Seattle 24, Green Bay 3

WEEK 13

Cincinnati 20, Baltimore 14
Arizona 23, St. Louis 19
Atlanta 13, Washington 10
Dallas 31, N.Y. Giants 9
Detroit 37, New England 20
Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 21
Jacksonville 23, Miami 7
Cleveland 17, Kansas City 10
Minnesota 27, Chicago 24
N.Y. Jets 17, Green Bay 14
San Diego 40, Buffalo 3
New Orleans 49, San Francisco 20
Tampa Bay 19, Pittsburgh 10
Oakland 28, Houston 7
Seattle 27, Denver 23
Carolina 24, Philadelphia 17

WEEK 14

Pittsburgh 18, Cleveland 17
Atlanta 45, Tampa Bay 38
Kansas City 41, Baltimore 24
N.Y. Jets 26, Buffalo 24
Indianapolis 45, Jacksonville 32
Detroit 9, Minnesota 7
Miami 17, New England 3
Dallas 34, New Orleans 21
N.Y. Giants 20, Carolina 14
Oakland 28, Cincinnati 17
Washington 34, Philadelphia 19
Tennessee 19, Houston 13
Green Bay 23, San Francisco 17
Arizona 30, Seattle 24
Denver 42, San Diego 16
St. Louis 23, Chicago 7

WEEK 15

Seattle 13, San Francisco 9
Dallas 45, Atlanta 40
Baltimore 24, Cleveland 16
Green Bay 21, Detroit 12
New England 23, Houston 17
Tennessee 17, Jacksonville 10
Miami 20, Buffalo 17
Minnesota 27, N.Y. Jets 17
Philadelphia 28, N.Y. Giants 24
Carolina 40, Pittsburgh 24
Chicago 33, Tampa Bay 20
New Orleans 27, Washington 14
Denver 39, Arizona 27
Kansas City 21, San Diego 13
Oakland 24, St. Louis 13
Indianapolis 33, Cincinnati 10

WEEK 16

Minnesota 35, Green Bay 20
Oakland 34, Kansas City 20
Baltimore 22, Pittsburgh 20
Atlanta 24, Carolina 10
Detroit 13, Chicago 10
Indianapolis 21, Houston 17
Jacksonville 20, New England 17
New Orleans 23, N.Y. Giants 10
Tampa Bay 28, Cleveland 7
Tennessee 27, Buffalo 3
St. Louis 41, Washington 40
San Francisco 28, Arizona 12
Denver 24, Cincinnati 13
Seattle 23, San Diego 15
Philadelphia 21, Dallas 7
Miami 17, N.Y. Jets 13

WEEK 17

N.Y. Giants 52, Washington 23
Atlanta 26, Philadelphia 18
Baltimore 25, Buffalo 10
Carolina 40, New Orleans 27
Houston 49, Cleveland 20
Detroit 31, Dallas 3
Chicago 20, Green Bay 17
Jacksonville 10, Kansas City 6
Indianapolis 27, Miami 24
Tennessee 30, New England 21
N.Y. Jets 35, Oakland 24
Pittsburgh 20, Cincinnati 10
Seattle 23, Tampa Bay 20
Minnesota 10, St. Louis 7
Arizona 22, San Diego 19
Denver 34, San Francisco 21

STANDINGS (teams with asterisks (*) make playoffs):

AFC East

Miami 9-7 *
N.Y. Jets 8-8
New England 7-9
Buffalo 5-11

AFC North

Baltimore 9-7 *
Pittsburgh 7-9
Cleveland 7-9
Cincinnati 4-12

AFC South

Indianapolis 10-6 *
Tennessee 9-7 *
Jacksonville 9-7
Houston 8-8

AFC West

Oakland 11-5 *
Kansas City 9-7 *
Denver 9-7
San Diego 8-8

NFC East

N.Y. Giants 11-5 *
Dallas 11-5 *
Philadelphia 8-8
Washington 5-11

NFC North

Green Bay 11-5 *
Detroit 7-9
Minnesota 7-9
Chicago 7-9

NFC South

Tampa Bay 8-8 *
New Orleans 8-8
Atlanta 7-9
Carolina 7-9

NFC West

Seattle 9-7 *
San Francisco 9-7 *
Arizona 8-8
St. Louis 4-12

FIRST ROUND PLAYOFFS

Miami 20, Kansas City 10
Tampa Bay 35, Dallas 27
Baltimore 31, Tennessee 20
Seattle 42, San Francisco 3

SECOND ROUND PLAYOFFS

Oakland 20, Miami 17
N.Y. Giants 22, Tampa Bay 20
Indianapolis 38, Baltimore 21
Seattle 16, Green Bay 14

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

Indianapolis 38, Oakland 27
N.Y. Giants 16, Seattle 3

SUPER BOWL
N.Y. Giants 14, Indianapolis 13

A note on methodology. What I did was collect the scores in each of the last four NFL seasons. Then (with the help of my lovely bride), I did an Excel calculation to determine what scores were more likely than others. Then I set up a random number generator to determine the scores (again, would not have been able to do this without help) for the entire season, then converted the random numbers to likely scores. The result is a prediction for each game, and records for each team. Once I had a random pattern that looked something like actual NFL standings (i.e., no weird results like Indianapolis going 0-16, or Houston making the playoffs), I ran a similar analysis for each playoff game, culminating in the Super Bowl.

Why bother? Well, out of the 256 NFL games this year, I’d like to predict exactly one correctly. I’d like to get close, really. I don’t know if I’ll manage this, I probably won’t. But I know this is true; my completely random picks can’t be any worse than what Peter King, with his skull stuffed full of football knowledge, does for SI.com. I’ll be updating my progress each week. (I will not, however, be betting any actual money on the outcomes.)