NFL Week Three Picks
Here are the Completely Random Arbitrary Picks (CRAP) for Week 3:
WEEK 3
Tampa Bay 34, Carolina 31
Chicago 10, Minnesota 9
Pittsburgh 28, Cincinnati 27
Green Bay 38, Detroit 0
Jacksonville 23, Indianapolis 20
Buffalo 26, N.Y. Jets 9
Tennessee 20, Miami 13
Houston 31, Washington 22
Cleveland 34, Baltimore 23
N.Y. Giants 34, Seattle 31
Philadelphia 23, San Francisco 3
Arizona 24, St. Louis 23
New England 27, Denver 3
New Orleans 17, Atlanta 13
On the year, I have a losing record (13-19), but I feel pretty good about this week; the old random number generator has some plausible upsets (Houston over Washington, Jax over Indy) as well as some real howlers (no way Cleveland is putting up 34 on Baltimore). I have a good feeling about predicting the Philly and Pittsburgh games correctly. (Here are Peter King’s picks, for comparison; he’s 18-14 on the young year.)
In survival football this week, I’m going with Miami, which is a scary pick. The Dolphins haven’t shown anybody a damn thing except that maybe Nick Saban should have gone and had lunch with the President that time. But Tennessee is a 11-point underdog, and they’re more putrid than Miami so far this year. At least Miami lost to the defending world champs at the Ketchup Bottle and got nipped by the pesky Bills. And if I pick Miami this week, I don’t have to deal with them the rest of the year, so there’s that.
Of course, if you’re going to pick an 0-2 team in a game against a putrid opponent, why not pick the Washington Redskins? Reason: the Redskins are on the road, for one thing (also why I’m not taking the Eagles over the Niners). And you have a better QB matchup with the Miami game; David Carr, whatever his faults, is a better signal-caller than Mark Brunell at this point in his career.
It’s also very, very tempting to take the Packers over the Lions, but we really don’t know which team is more putrid at this point in time. I suspect it’s the Lions that are more putrid, but they played the Seahawks mighty tough, so you can’t really pick against them. Same with taking Carolina over Tampa; the Panthers just aren’t strong enough favorites.
It’s a tough week, and I’m not very confident about my pick. We’ll see what happens.
UPDATE: Now I don’t know what to do. The Sports Guy spends an entire column ripping, just ripping poor Daunte Culpepper, and I’m reading the whole thing thinking, great galloping Godzilla, am I mental for taking Miami here? And then he says:
DOLPHINS (-10.5) over Titans
Forget about Culpepper — Miami’s defense covers this spread by itself.
Well, okay then.
Having said that, after taking a second look, he’s taking just three favorites this week — the Dolphins, Carolina, which has the same exact situation (0-2, facing a potentially horrid team with a weak QB) and the Seahawks, who I took in Week One. So that leaves the Dolphins – I’m not taking Carolina on the road without Steve Smith. So there you go.