“Prosper Has It All”

Tuesday, January 19th, 2010

Very good article here on the shortcomings of Prosper.com:

To look at the results of Prosper’s loan marketplace, though, is to see not a solution to the credit crisis, but a microcosm of it. Loans to unqualified borrowers; reliance on mathematical models that turn out to be a lot less useful than they seemed; failed hopes that high interest rates could make subprime loans profitable; sky high default rates—Prosper has it all. Prosper’s Web site advertises returns of 6 percent to 14 percent for lenders. But the reality is that the lenders who loaned $188 million through Prosper have not earned anything like these returns. On the contrary, the majority of them have lost money, as they’ve watched their loans go bad at shockingly high rates.

Much like the loans made by banks during the mortgage boom, Prosper’s loans have gone into default at rates much worse than predicted by historical credit data.  In November, 2007, Larsen told the Associated Press that Prosper’s default rate “hovered at around 2.7%.” That, however, included many new loans that simply hadn’t had time to go bad. Larsen refers to this obliquely in the AP story, noting that as more loans matured the rate would rise, but there’s no hint of just how steep that rise would be. Prosper’s data now shows that now shows that close to 36% of the loans made before Nov. 27, 2007—the date of the AP story—have ended in default, roughly thirteen times what a casual reader would have thought from Larsen’s comments. That is close, coincidentally, to the total 39% (or roughly two in five) default for the Prosper loans that have reached the end of their three year term.

What the article doesn’t cover is not only that Prosper borrowers are horrific deadbeats (you know who you are) but that Prosper does nothing, nada, nichevo, not one single thing to help lenders get their money back through collection agencies.  Not that I ever had that much money invested, mind you, but it would have been nice to get some of it back, just a little.  I haven’t gotten a cent back on any of my bad loans, which makes me think that the collection agencies are either asleep or dead.

I think I broke even on Prosper (I haven’t bothered running the numbers, it’s too depressing).  But it certainly wasn’t a huge moneymaker.  It could have been – would have been, I think – if there weren’t just so many damned deadbeats out there who borrow money without thinking how to pay it back.

Stuff I Did – January

Tuesday, January 19th, 2010

I decided that it would be much more useful (and much less painful) to list the stuff that I did in a given month, rather than the stuff that I should have done and didn’t do.  Obviously, there’s a huge (hyuuuuuuge) to-do list behind this, but it’s more positive to be positive, or so I think.

  • Cleaned out garage.  This means that all of the tile stuff is downstairs for mosaic projects (if and when I find time), all the dirt and leaves and grass have been swept out, all the cobwebs are gone, and all of the stuff on the shelves is more-or-less straightened out.  A good day’s work.
  • Took down the Christmas tree.  Got everything downstairs, too.
  • Fixed the big hole in the wall.  Right before Christmas, I was walking a big bag downstairs; I missed the last step and sent the bag swinging into the wall.  I patched the drywall with spackle, and it looks OK.
  • Repaint downstairs bathroom wall:  Don’t want to get into details, but there was some damage to the paint in the downstairs bathroom, and I put the first coat down yesterday.
  • Query letters:  I have four or five out (with one insta-rejection); waiting to hear back on some of those before sending out a couple more.  If these don’t pan out, then it’s back to the drawing board.
  • Got pictures hung up:  the ketubah from our wedding, and the new baby picture we got.

Stuff To Do – December

Monday, December 7th, 2009

The end of the year is an artificial deadline, keep in mind.  If there are things that need to be done and don’t get done until 2010, that’s fine.  The point is reduction of stress, people.

  • Query letters (got all the addresses and whatnot lined up, e-mailing them out one at a time for luck).
  • Mosaic (did a little work on this but still have to schlep some more stuff downstairs)
  • Get table put together for living room (accomplished).
  • Sweep garage (was going to do this last weekend but it snowed).
  • Lubricate drive for garage door opener (same).
  • Change oil in lawnmower (same).
  • Check and see if snowblower will start (same).
  • Change furnace filters upstairs and downstairs.

New for this month:

  • Get home theater guys out to put in the one wire needed to finish setup (accomplished).
  • Order baskets from Container Store to keep babies out of bookcases (accomplished)
  • Get fireplace screen to keep babies out of fire (accomplished)
  • Get baby gate installed downstairs (accomplished)
  • Get baby gate installed upstairs (got it out of the car, so there’s that)
  • Get huge big wad of recycling out the door (accomplished)
  • Dentist (accomplished)
  • Haircut (accomplished)
  • Get money off Staples copy card and get labels for mailing Christmas cards (accomplished)
  • Go to Lowe’s and get wheel for handcart and install it (accomplished)
  • Put the last screws in the living room bookcase that weren’t in the original package (accomplished)
  • Clear out all the old dead tomato plants from backyard (accomplished)
  • Put up Christmas tree.
  • Send out Christmas cards.
  • Book hotels for Texas trip.

Gordon Ramsay Spends a Week In My Kitchen

Friday, December 4th, 2009

Monday

It’s the beginning of another week, and I’m visiting a small restaurant in New Jersey, assuming I can find the bloody place.  I know they said it wasn’t on the high street, but this is ridiculous.  I had to stop and ask directions three times, and even when I got there I didn’t see any fucking signs outside.  It didn’t even look like a restaurant, more like somebody’s house.

The chef seemed like a nice enough fellow, but fat as all hell – I couldn’t tell if he really had a passion for food other than eating it.  I asked for a menu, and if you can fucking believe it, he said they didn’t have a menu, just nightly specials.  I asked for the special, which turned out to be overcooked spaghetti in a pink vodka sauce with slices of pork tenderloin as a garnish.  Complete rubbish; not anywhere close to authentic Italian.  I’ve had better meals at a curry take-away in Glasgow.

Tuesday

I take a good look at the kitchen.  It’s in a disgusting state.  It takes me ten minutes to get a whisk out of the overcrowded utility drawer; it’s somehow wrapped itself around something that looks like a potato masher.  I check the refrigerator, and there’s a half-empty tin of Paul Newman spaghetti sauce left over from last night.  I’m completely gobsmacked.  How can you call yourself a fucking chef and not be able to make something as simple as spaghetti sauce?

There’s nobody around for dinner service again; I haven’t seen a single customer since I walked in the place.  The so-called “special” tonight is burritos with beans and rice.  I watch the chef make the dish, and he’s using canned refried beans.  Pathetic.  And who serves Italian and Mexican at the same restaurant?  The chef has no clue whatsoever.

Wednesday

I arrive early to see what preparation for lunch service is like.  As I walk in the restaurant, the chef is leaving.  He explains that the restaurant isn’t open for lunch service.  Unbelievable.  He has no idea how much money he is throwing away.  He claims to have a second job in Trenton, and says it’s all he can do to make his own lunch.  I ask to take a look at what he’s having for lunch, and it turns out to be a fucking peanut butter and jelly sandwich with pretzels and a Snapple.  I wouldn’t feed that to a bloody rodent.

I get started on a roasted squash soup, and go out into the town and try to get some bloody lunch customers.  None of them had even heard of the restaurant.  But they’re crazy about the soup.  We take in five hundred dollars.  For some reason, though, the chef isn’t impressed by this.

Thursday

I arrive at the restaurant, and the chef isn’t ready for dinner service.  Instead, he’s playing some American football game on his PlayStation.  Completely unacceptable.  I challenge him to come up with a menu for tonight, based on local, fresh food.  He goes to the farmer’s market and manages to put together a simple, hearty meal – spinach salad, T-bone steak with sautéed Portobello mushrooms, a baked potato, and a very rich chocolate cake with ice cream.  I’m bloody impressed for once, although I still wouldn’t let him within a hundred yards of one of my own restaurants.

Friday

I arrive for dinner service, but the chef is on his way out to dinner with his wife.  I can’t fucking believe it.  How can the restaurant not be open on Friday night?  It’s the biggest night of the week.  He says he always goes out for dinner with his wife on Friday night to some other restaurant.  What in bloody hell!
I just don’t understand.  I take a look at his books.  The poor bastard is mortgaged up to his eyeballs, and there haven’t been any customers coming through the door at all.  I just don’t see how this restaurant can be salvaged.

Saturday

It’s the night of the big re-launch.  I’ve invited some of the leading citizens of the town to come out.  The chef is nearly hysterical at the thought of having to cook for two hundred people.  After he calms down a bit, I try to walk him through what he needs to do to make this place a success.  But he’s not listening.  Instead, he walks around to the back of the restaurant, which turns out to be this amazing terrace – complete with a large grill and what he explains is a “smoker.”  We get a charcoal fire started in the smoker, and load it up with fifty pounds of beef brisket.  While the brisket is smoking, he makes baked beans in the slow-cooker and starts hamburgers, hot dogs and local corn on the cob on the grill.  At first, I’m convinced it’s going to be a fucking disaster. 

But when the customers arrive, they can’t get enough of the authentic barbecue.  It turns out to be an absolutely brilliant idea.  I try to explain to the chef that this is how he ought to be operating his restaurant all the time instead of turning out uninspired Italian and Mexican specials.  You can get brisket and charcoal for pence, and then have fresh, local side dishes that really bring in the crowds.  It’s a strategy that could make this restaurant a going concern.

He stares at me for two whole minutes, not saying a bloody word.  And that’s when he tells me and the camera crew to get the fuck out and not come back.  Unbelievable.

Stuff To Do – November

Monday, November 30th, 2009

I am SO playing catchup this month, it’s unreal.   I have deferred work on the mosaic until I have time to really do it (maybe over the holidays, or the next time my M-I-L is in town to take care of babies).  Other crap that needs doing:

  • Last (absolute last) round of query letters that MUST go out before the end of the month (fail).
  • Schedule the last remaining four items for warranty review (accomplished).
  • Get second bookcase put together for living room (accomplished).
  • Sweep garage (deferred to next weekend).
  • Lubricate drive for garage door opener (deferred to next weekend).
  • Schlep to East Rutherford to pick up tile (accomplished).

New for this month:

  • Change oil in car (accomplished as a result of $1800 repair bill on bad cam sensor, I don’t want to talk about it).
  • Change oil in lawnmower (deferred to next weekend).
  • Check and see if snowblower will start (deferred to next weekend).
  • Schlep to Crate and Barrel to get table for living room (accomplished).
  • Get baskets for bookcases to keep babies from getting into the wires (accomplished).
  • Get fireplace screen to keep babies out of fire (accomplished)
  • Get papers into new safe deposit box (accomplished).
  • Change furnace filters upstairs and downstairs (fail).
  • Clean rust off smoker and re-paint (accomplished).
  • Get Christmas stuff out of basement (accomplished).
  • Get bouncy seat down to basement (accomplished).
  • Move home theater wiring to new bookcase (accomplished).
  • Secure fireplace screen (accomplished).

Veteran’s Day

Thursday, November 12th, 2009

I still don’t know why I did it.  I had the day off and I was going to go up to East Rutherford to pick up some tile.  We’d gotten part of our backsplash in our kitchen tiled, but not the rest of it, and the only way to get a match was to go up to the one place that had it, and you don’t care anyway, but that’s where I was going.  I had lunch at the Chinese buffet in Hillsborough, which was bad enough already, and has now gone downhill enough that I won’t be going back.  I left the restaurant and decided to stop by the house for a minute before I left.

So I was driving southbound on 206, which is the main drag through Hillsborough, and there was this guy.  In his eighties, was my guess, and he was hitchhiking.  He was on the side of the road, over by the Bottle King, and he had his thumb out.  I hadn’t seen that in, well, I guess, forever.  People don’t hitchhike like that, or they haven’t in my lifetime.  I was surprised more than anything else, and I guess maybe that’s why I stopped.

I knew it was a stupid thing to do.  Idiotic, even.  There was a guy – I hope I am remembering this right – in my church when I was a teenager who picked up a hitchhiker and got shot for his trouble.  He wouldn’t have done it except that he knew the hitchhiker; he’d been a student of his or something.  But he still got shot (although not fatally).  It is not something I would ever do, which makes me wonder why I did it.

He said he was going to the big development just south of ours; it was out of my way but not so far that it made much of a difference.  He got in, put the plus-size bottle of wine he was carrying on the floorboard, buckled his seatbelt, and we were off.  He told me the wine was for a recipe he was working on.  I didn’t believe him.

I didn’t want to talk to him.  Not that I didn’t want to be sociable or anything, but I didn’t want him to know who I was.  I didn’t want to get involved.  That can happen, especially if you have the kind of job I have, where you end up getting involved.  I was willing to give him a ride but not to compound that mistake with anything else.

I don’t know where it was, but one of the businesses on 206 had their flag at half-staff, and he wondered why.  “Probably for Fort Hood,” I said.

“Is today Veteran’s Day?” he asked.

“Yeah.”

And then he started telling me how he’d lied about his age to go into the Navy, how they’d bombarded Japan at the end of the war, and how he’d cruised all around the world.  “The admiral, you see, wanted to visit all these countries, and the ship goes where the admiral wants it to go, see?”

We pulled into his development and I dropped him off in front of his apartment.  He thanked me, and explained – for no particular reason – that he was a vodka drinker, but switched to wine when his stomach went bad.  I drove off and went home, ran the last little errand I needed to, and headed to East Rutherford for my tile.

I tell this story for three reasons.  First, don’t pick up hitchhikers.  Second, I don’t know if what this guy was saying was true, but if it was, well, God bless him for his service, and all those who have served honorably and well.  Third, I am not trying to say here that giving a veteran (if that’s what he was) a ride home from the liquor store is any way to commemmorate Veteran’s Day, but that’s what I did.  I don’t feel that great about it, but it was more than what a lot of people do.

Less Poetry, More Democracy

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

Thomas L. Friedman, in the New York Times today:

More and more lately, I find people asking me: What do you think President Obama really believes about this or that issue? I find that odd. How is it that a president who has taken on so many big issues, with very specific policies — and has even been awarded a Nobel Prize for all the hopes he has kindled — still has so many people asking what he really believes?

Well, it’s not that difficult to understand.  A big portion of what Obama says is (everyone recognizes this) fluffy rhetoric or windbag puffery.  Part of what he says is soft-soap, stuff he thinks his audience wants to hear – the line about health care reform not adding a dime to the deficit, for example.  (Anyone who ever heard Bob Dole trying to talk like a conservative is familiar with this.)  And part of what he says, of course, is what he wants to do and how he wants to do it.  But it’s difficult – certainly Friedman struggles with this – to pull out what you would call a consistent philosophy.  (This is why some liberals think Obama is a squish and why some conservatives think he’s a neo-Bolshevik.)

I don’t think that President Obama has a communications problem, per se. He has given many speeches and interviews broadly explaining his policies and justifying their necessity. Rather, he has a “narrative” problem.

Obama has more of a “content” problem than a “narrative” problem, if you ask me.  (What Friedman is trying to do is present the old “framing” argument – liberal ideas are better than conservative ideas but less well presented; if they were presented better, more people might agree with them.)

He has not tied all his programs into a single narrative that shows the links between his health care, banking, economic, climate, energy, education and foreign policies.

This is untrue.  Obama has done this, but the narrative is “it’s all George W. Bush’s fault, you can’t blame me.”  Having said that, I would like to hear how Obama’s banking policy (what do you mean, you’re spending bailout money on staff bonuses?) with his Iran policy (can I get you anything, Revered Mullah?  Coffee?  A nice muffin?).  But that’s me.

Such a narrative would enable each issue and each constituency to reinforce the other and evoke the kind of popular excitement that got him elected.

It would?  How?  I don’t see anything what will bring back that level of popularity, short of Obama doing something awesome like rescuing a kitten or capturing bin Laden or developing an effective spam filter.

Without it, though, the president’s eloquence, his unique ability to inspire people to get out of their seats and work for him, has been muted or lost in a thicket of technocratic details. His daring but discrete policies are starting to feel like a work plan that we have to slog through, and endlessly compromise over, just to finish for finishing’s sake — not because they are all building blocks of a great national project.

Keep in mind here, what Friedman (a self-confessed neo-authoritarian) is basically complaining about here is the democratic process itself.  What he is basically saying here is that if Obama were to tie health care (which is what’s bogged down into the thicket) into some big “national greatness” narrative, suddenly the scales would fall from the eyes of the Capitol Hill dealmakers.  Oh!  My God!  This health care bill is…. a building block of a great national project!  Of course, I will drop my opposition to it!  Let us pass this far-reaching vision into law immediately!  What was I thinking, calling for a trigger before the public option could be implemented?  Let’s get this sucker into conference committee and come out tomorrow with a Canadian-style system, because such a thing is necessary for the Great National Project to move forward.  Yeah, right, as if.

And let’s not forget – the slogging and endless compromise is due, largely, to Democratic opposition to the more extreme elements of the various Congressional plans.  And let’s also not forget that Obama has offered no plans – zero, none, nada – to Congress as it works to put this, the most important building block in the liberal Ziggurat of Awesomeness, in place.  (And you show me one “daring” Obama policy.  One.)

What is that project? What is that narrative? Quite simply it is nation-building at home. It is nation-building in America.

This is ludicrous.  This is a base of sweet, creamy idiocy topped off with a dark, thick topping of stupidity, covered with a white, fluffy layer of dumb, with a round, red candied ball of ridiculousness on top.  America isn’t Germany 1946 or Somalia 1993 or Afghanistan 2002 or Haiti whenever.  It’s America, and the idea that America needs the kind of nation-building that destroyed or badly-damaged states have needed from time to time is simply too thick-headed for words.  (If Friedman were talking about Detroit or New Orleans or the St. Louis Rams, he might – might – have a point, but the woes of individual cities are not the stuff of nation-building.)

I’ve always believed that Mr. Obama was elected because a majority of Americans fear that we’re becoming a declining great power.

Mr. Obama was elected because of superior GOTV, a unified party behind him, a deeply unpopular incumbent, a flailing McCain/Palin campaign, and a financial crisis of historic proportions, not because people agree with Tom Friedman.

Everything from our schools to our energy and transportation systems are falling apart and in need of reinvention and reinvigoration.

Really?  Is this so?

  • Schools:  If schools aren’t better than what they were during the “Why Johnny Can’t Read” 70’s, despite billions of dollars pumped into them, despite every technological advance there is, despite serious upgrades in teacher pay, I don’t know what sort of reinvention or reintegration you could do.
  • Energy:  I grew up in the oil crisis.  Tell me energy isn’t in better shape now than it was then.  Tell me.
  • Transportation:  You want to tell me how much money we’ve put into repairing roads and bridges and all that over the years?  Where did all that money go?  And what, specifically, is needed to “reinvent” transportation?  More light rail?  The Segway?

And what people want most from Washington today is nation-building at home.

What people want most from Washington is a big chunk of bailout money that they don’t have to pay back.  Tell me I’m wrong.

Many people, including conservatives, voted for Barack Obama because in their hearts they felt he could pull us all together for that project better than any other candidate. Many are what I’d call “Warren Buffett centrists.” They are not billionaires, but they are people who believe in Mr. Buffett’s saying that whatever he achieved in life was due primarily to the fact that he was born in this country — America — at this time, with all of its advantages and opportunities.

I believe that. And I believe that without a strong America — which, at its best, can deliver more goods and goodness to its own citizens and to the world than any other nation — our kids and many others around the world will not have those opportunities.

Wait a second.  Is Friedman here saying that Barack Obama was the candidate for a strong America?  Because it doesn’t look that way to me.  Obama was the candidate for weak America – sycophantic with Euro elites, submissive to the Iranians and North Koreans.  Obama is the candidate of the apology tour.  Friedman is right when he says that Obama is about delivering the “goods and goodness” – the goodies, but what else is he about?

I am convinced that this kind of nation-building at home is exactly what Mr. Obama is trying to deliver, and should be his unifying call: We need universal health care because it would strengthen our social fabric and enable our businesses to better compete globally. We need to upgrade our schools because no child in 21st-century America should be left behind and because we cannot compete for the best new jobs without doing so. We need a greener economy, not just to mitigate climate change, but because a world growing from 6.7 billion people to 9.2 billion by 2050 is going to demand more and more clean energy and water, and the country that develops the most clean technologies is going to have the most energy security, national security, economic security, innovative companies and global respect.

Here you get into policy differences, of course, but I am uncomfortable with all the “need” language.  I am uncomfortable with the politics of diktats – we must spend X billion dollars on schools because we need to compete with Y over Z. 

But to deliver this agenda requires a motivated public and a spirit of shared sacrifice.

That is to say, high taxes.

That’s where narrative becomes vital.

To explain to people, this is why I am raising your taxes.

People have to have a gut feel for why this nation-building project, with all its varied strands, is so important — why it’s worth the sacrifice. One of the reasons that independents and conservatives who voted for Mr. Obama have been so easily swayed against him by Fox News and people labeling him a “socialist” is because he has not given voice to the truly patriotic nation-building endeavor in which he is engaged.

Or it’s because he’s a socialist.  You never know.  (Hey, Friedman said he didn’t know what Obama believes, and considering he’s already nationalized the auto industry and would like to nationalize a big part of health care, “socialist” isn’t that unreasonable of an epithet.)

Stuff To Do – October

Sunday, October 25th, 2009

The leaves are turning, the year is winding down, and I still want to go to Five Guys.  Ahem.

  • Work on second mosaic (you have no idea how difficult it is right now to even make it downstairs to my workbench).
  • Get query letters ready for November writer’s conference in NYC (fail).
  • Complete one-year warranty review of new house (rescheduled).
  • Complete long national nightmare regarding TV (accomplished)

New for this month:

  • Get the garage in shape for (possible) painting (deferred for awhile)
  • Put together bookcases for family room (one down, one to g0).
  • Get safe deposit box (accomplished).
  • Schlep to East Rutherford to pick up tile (scheduled)
  • Mow lawn (completed)
  • Go over contractor’s estimate with wife (accomplished).

Week 4 – Thursday

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

Breakfast – Had breakfast at five in the morning, thanks to a cranky baby.  Kashi granola cereal with a little honey.

Lunch – I had a parking space near my office today, and that meant I could go out for lunch, and that’s what I did.  Didn’t go to Five Guys, because a healthy trip to Five Guys (no peanuts, Coke Zero, no cheese, no bacon) is no fun.  Went to Chevy’s, got something relatively healthy (flautas with no sauce, as opposed to chimichangas) and the chicken tortilla soup.  Still lots of points, don’t get me wrong.

Dinner - two hot dogs, a small diet Coke and a hot chocolate at the Atlantic League finals.  Go Patriots.

Stuff To Do – September

Thursday, October 1st, 2009

Got all the new stuff done in August, starting September early.

  • Work on second mosaic (deferred).
  • Continue query-letter process (eight queries out the door this month, no rejections so far).
  • Get everything synched with garage-door openers for both cars (FAIL, have to call Toyota to see what the deal is).
  • Get bookcases for family room from Crate and Barrel (ordered; delivery scheduled for next month).
  • Get will paperwork finalized (accomplished).
  • Get the home theater people to finally fix the channel-changing delay (accomplished at long last).
  • Schlep to Toyota dealer to put satellite radio in new van (accomplished, you rock, Lawrenceville Toyota).

New for this month:

  • Plan October vacation (largely accomplished).
  • Enter Backspace conference contest (accomplished, but they had over 600 entries, so bad news for your old pal CDE).
  • Complete one-year warranty review of new house (working on nagging the warranty guy).
  • Read (and possibly review) new Captain Alatriste book (read, review submitted).
  • Get propane refill for grill (accomplished)
  • Wash van (accomplished).
  • Wash and vacuum car (deferred).
  • Schlep to Costco for formula (accomplished, and accomplished).
  • Mow lawn & edge (accomplished).
  • Consider spraying lawn for weeds (fertilized, with weed and feed, but it didn’t kill the weeds I wanted dead).
  • Get envelopes and photo paper from Staples (accomplished).
  • Get landscaper over to see if he can build the rock garden I’m thinking about putting in (accomplished).
  • Get tile guy to get rest of backsplash tiled (got estimate).
  • Find new coffee table for family room that babies won’t crawl under (deferred until bookcases are installed).